Oscar 2016 Predictions

academy-awards

It’s that time again! This Sunday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will hand out awards to whatever films win the most votes from its members! But in what is essentially a popularity contest, influenced by multi-million dollar ad campaigns and industry-insider connections, how is one to make sense of it all? Well, if you’re part of a betting pool or you’re just curious about what’s going to happen, read on for my expectations and personal picks!

Best Picture

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Expected Winner: The Revenant
Personal PIck: Mad Max: Fury Road

It’s always strange to see how Oscar expectations change in January and February. Late last year, Spotlight (an excellent film) was the frontrunner for best picture, with lots of critical praise and a Best Ensemble award from SAG to back it up. But despite the fact that actors make up the largest block of Academy voters, lots of campaigning has swung public opinion back toward The Revenant.

I think that’s ridiculous, and would rather see any other film on the list win, but my heart lies with Mad Max: Fury Road. It’s not uncommon to look back on Oscar lists and see classics outshined by films you’ve never heard of. This is why a lot of people consider them to be irrelevant; if the Academy can choose Shakespeare In Love over Saving Private Ryan, or Crash over Brokeback Mountain, or Forrest Gump over Pulp Fiction, then do they really matter? To me, if a bonafide classic released within a calendar year, that should be the obvious pick for Best Picture. Within a year, The Revenant will fade into the collective unconscious as “that movie where Leonardo DiCaprio got attacked by a bear.” Meanwhile, Mad Max: Fury Road will be remembered fondly for decades, an example of how great the action genre can be when spearheaded by a director with strong enough vision.

Best Actor In A Leading Role

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Expected Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio
Personal Pick: Matt Damon, The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio has this award on lock, and to a degree, I can’t fault the logic. He went through hell on this role and fully committed to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s vision. However, his role is somewhat one-note, and he doesn’t get a lot of chances to show range or really, y’know, act.

Since I try not to vote for performances in movies I haven’t seen, my options here are limited to Damon and DiCaprio, and between the two, I preferred Damon in The Martian. He had to portray a cool, likable every-man, but also delve into the man’s depression and occasional defeat in the face of extremely overwhelming odds. His work has been underrated, and he won’t get an award here, but I would be pleasantly surprised to see him recognized.

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Expected Winner: Brie Larson
Personal Pick: Brie Larson

Brie Larson is the odds-on favorite to win Best Actress, and I’d love to see that happen. I’ve been a fan of her work for a while (her performance in Short Term 12 is phenomenal), and Room is one of her best performances. It’s a bit strange to see her up for what is essentially a supporting role, but she anchors the movie and portrays the one character who actually knows how much she’s been changed by the traumatic events that transpired. Full disclosure: I’ve only seen one other film in this field (Brooklyn), and would be happy to see Saoirse Ronan win too, but Larson really deserves this one.

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Expected Winner: Sylvester Stallone
Personal Pick: Mark Rylance

Who would have thought that Sylvester Stallone would be up for an Academy Award for acting in 2016? Yet, here we are, and he’s the frontrunner in the category. I’ve yet to see Creed, or The Big Short, but the rest of this field is loaded with great work. Ruffalo is great as the raw nerve in Spotlight, and Tom Hardy is perhaps The Revenant’s greatest strength. Yet, for me, it’s Mark Rylance’s excellent and understated performance from Bridge of Spies that deserves the nod.

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Expected Winner: Alicia Vikander
Personal Pick: Rachel McAdams

Despite the fact that The Danish Girl was clearly greenlit as a way to get Oscar attention through Eddie Redmayne’s performance as a transgender woman, Alicia Vikander is getting most of the attention. I have not seen the movie, but would be happy to see her win for her performance in Ex Machina alone. However, of the two films on this list that I have seen, The Hateful Eight and Spotlight, I’d like to see Rachel McAdams walk away with it. Her performance is a perfect reflection of what a journalist should be: pointed, subtle, and determined.

Animated Feature

Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Expected Winner: Inside Out
Personal Pick: Anomalisa

Inside Out is going to win this one without much trouble. It’s one of Pixar’s best films and an outstanding achievement in its own right, visually explaining psychological concepts in a way that is digestible by children. However, Duke Johnson and Charlie Kaufman’s Anomalisa is an even more singular accomplishment, a stop-motion puppet movie that happens to be the most touchingly human film of the year. It’s a masterpiece that will easily stand the test of time, but is too strange and uncomfortable for the Academy to award. Still, it’s hard to be upset about a film as great as Inside Out receiving awards.

Cinematography

Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Expected Winner: The Revenant
Personal Pick: The Revenant

Despite not thinking that the visual style of The Revenant suited its rough setting and characters, there’s no disputing that the work on display is magnificent. Add to that the difficulty of shooting entirely with natural light and the fact that cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki has the chance to make history by winning three consecutive Oscars, and you have as close to a sure-thing award as possible.

Costume Design

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Expected Winner: Cinderella
Personal Pick: Cinderella

There’s a consensus among a lot of Oscar prognosticators that Mad Max will win this award because of its likelihood to sweep the technical awards. It’s possible, but I’m expecting the Academy to be more impressed with the flowing dresses and vibrant colors of Disney’s unexpectedly great Cinderella. It would be my personal pick as well; the variety and complexity of the costumes in the ball scene alone warrant the attention.

Directing

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Expected Winner: The Revenant
Personal Pick: Mad Max: Fury Road

It’s looking like Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is going to win his second Best Director Oscar in a row, which is a shame. While I liked Birdman a lot, The Revenant is overlong and horribly paced. It’s ultimately the director’s job to make sure that all of the elements in a film are clicking and working in conjunction with one another, and I don’t feel like he did a great job this time around. For that same reason, George Miller deserves this award more than anybody in recent memory. Mad Max: Fury Road was an insane project to orchestrate, with over-the-top stunts, grueling weather conditions, a notoriously long and difficult shoot, and a post-production period that was integral to the film’s success. At 70 years old, he took on a more difficult project than his younger contemporaries could dream of, and it was an absolute success.

Documentary Feature

Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Expected Winner: Amy
Personal Pick: The Look of Silence

I’ll be honest: I haven’t actually seen any of these films, but from the sounds of things, The Look of Silence is easily the most-deserving winner. As the reportedly superior sister film to 2014’s incredible The Act of Killing, I can only imagine how affecting and illuminating this piece is. However, this is the Academy we’re talking about, and they like their documentaries a little less-weighty. If The Act of Killing, which made a much bigger splash than The Look of Silence, could be beaten out, then I doubt The Look of Silence has a shot. Instead, expect the Academy to pick Amy, a documentary on Amy Winehouse, because they like to pick a familiar face.

Documentary Short

Body Team 12
Chau, beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Expected Winner: Body Team 12
Personal Pick: N/A

I haven’t seen a single one of these, and don’t feel informed enough about any of them to make a Personal Pick. However, looking at other Oscar prognosticators, Body Team 12 seems to be the slight favorite.

Film Editing

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Expected Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Personal Pick: Mad Max: Fury Road

Mad Max seems to be the slight favorite here, with The Big Short coming up as a close second. I’d love to see Mad Max win it, because editing is so important to the film’s success. The timing and pacing of its non-stop chase is what makes it so dynamic and watchable.

Foreign Language Film

Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War

Expected Winner: Son of Saul
Personal Pick: N/A

This is another category in which I haven’t seen any of the nominees. However, Son of Saul sounds like a shoe-in this year, and I’ve heard great things from critics about how powerful it is.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Expected Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Personal Pick: Mad Max: Fury Road

Mad Max seems to be the front-runner here, although The Revenant could win for how it roughed-up its handsome central cast. Mad Max really does deserve it, though. Not only does it have such a diverse array of strange, deformed, and decorated characters, but so much care went into their styles and how they would blend in or stand out from their surroundings.

Original Score

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Expected Winner: The Hateful Eight
Personal Pick: The Hateful Eight

The Hateful Eight seems to be the frontrunner in this category, and given how most of the other nominees had fairly forgettable scores (or, in Star Wars’s case, re-used a lot of old material), it probably deserves it. Plus, it’d be nice to see industry-legend Ennio Morricone finally get recognized for his exceptional work.

Original Song

“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3,” Youth
“Til It Happens To You,” The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s On The Wall,” Spectre

Expected Winner: ‘Til It Happens To You
Personal Pick: N/A

The likely winner this year seems to be ‘Til It Happens To You, which benefits from an important subject matter (sexual assault) and the star-power of Lady Gaga. However, I wouldn’t discount “Earned It” entirely. It has quite a bit of fame and radio-play to back it up.

Production Design

Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Expected Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Personal Pick: Mad Max: Fury Road

Production Design encompasses the entire look of a film. While none of the nominees are slouches, let’s be honest: Mad Max is clearly deserving of this award. Rather than re-creating a certain established look from the past, or creating a Martian landscape based on our own imagery, Fury Road comes completely from the imagination, and every single element onscreen works in conjunction with all others to establish a singular vision. It’s a shoe-in for Production Design.

Short Film – Animated

Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Expected Winner: Sanjay’s Super Team
Personal Pick: World of Tomorrow

This is another category in which I have not seen any nominees. However, I’m still going with World of Tomorrow, because I’ve heard it’s spectacular, and I have a soft spot in my heart for creator Don Hertzfeld. He’s been working in independent animation for decades now, spearheaded The Animation Show with Mike Judge, and created the great Rejected, which once won an Oscar itself. That being said, I expect his work to be too strange for the majority of the Academy, so I’m going with the crowd-pleasing Pixar short Sanjay’s Super Team instead as my prediction. This one’s a bit of a toss-up, though.

Short Film – Live Action

Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Stutterer

Expected Winner: Ave Maria
Personal Pick: N/A

This one is a total toss-up, and doesn’t seem to have any consensus whatsoever among Oscar prognosticators. I’m going with Ave Maria, but your guess is as good as mine.

Sound Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Expected Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Personal Pick: Mad Max: Fury Road

There’s been some talk that The Revenant’s rally might cause it to take this category as well, but I’m holding strong with Mad Max. It’s filled to the brim with great sound effects, and those chosen and recorded for the film make a huge impact on it.

Sound Mixing

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Expected Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Personal Pick: Mad Max: Fury Road

Again, there’s some talk that The Revenant could take this one, but Mad Max deserves it. Sound Mixing is about the leveling and prioritization of sounds in a film, and Mad Max knows exactly how to drive the film with overpowering sound effects, and when to quiet down and let a moment live. The sound mix is almost as significant to the film’s pacing as its editing.

Visual Effects

Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Expected Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Personal Pick: Mad Max: Furty Road

Over the past decade or so, this category has become nearly synonymous with digital effects. However, this year is a bit different, with several movies (even Star Wars!) that combined digital elements with good old fashioned practical effects. Of those in the field, Mad Max seems to be the frontrunner, with its dedication to real stunts and car crashes over computer-generated ones. This decision regarding effects is a huge part of why the film’s action scenes feel so tactile and exciting.

Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Expected Winner: The Big Short
Personal Pick: The Martian

Smart money is on The Big Short to win. I haven’t seen it, but I understand that it’s a well-written piece that manages to make a complex and somewhat boring concept like the housing market crash and make it fun and understandable for the average moviegoer. Of the films I’ve seen (Brooklyn, The Martian, and Room), I’m leaning toward The Martian as my favorite. It’s remarkably well-sequenced, with its series of ups and downs, and, like The Big Short, manages to take somewhat complicated ideas and make them palatable to the audience. It takes a great control of pacing to make a 2 1/2 hour film so enjoyable from start to finish, and Drew Goddard’s terrific screenplay is almost as important to this success as Ridley Scott’s direction.

Original Screenplay

Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Expected Winner: Spotlight
Personal Pick: Inside Out

Spotlight has this one essentially locked up, and I can’t complain with that. It’s a great screenplay that lays out the importance of real journalism, takes on a controversial and uncomfortable story without softening it, and grounds the whole thing in humanity. But if I were to pick my personal favorite from the field, I would have to go with Inside Out. It’s an incredibly layered screenplay, with multiple narratives that affect each other in literal and metaphorical ways, and lots of physical devices that make sense of complex psychological phenomena.

1 thought on “Oscar 2016 Predictions

  1. You have obviously done your homework…we don’t have much different but as usual some obvious choices will not happen (Stallone, really?) and you end up hitting some of those guesses). In all honesty, the movies were really high quality this year but for different reasons/styles/degree of difficulty etc. Should be fun tonight!

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