UPDATE: So, the Academy Awards have come and gone this year. I’m going to update each section below to my thoughts on the winners. The new text will all be in bold, so it should be easy to spot.

Some general thoughts: this wasn’t one of my best years for predictions. 17/24 isn’t bad, by most standards, but it’s less than 75%, which is typically where I fall. On the plus side, my misses were usually categories where I had been cynical about my prediction, and the Academy actually went with the option I wanted. So good on them for recognizing the right films for a lot (if not all) categories.

So, without further ado, here is the final, post-mortem Oscar write-up!

It’s that time of year, when the most hardcore of us film lovers start prognosticating on what a particular group of Hollywood insiders thought should be revered! Yes, it’s the Academy Awards, the foremost authority on “good” films, if you don’t consider the public, the fans, the critics, etc.

Yes, most awards are bullshit, but they’re also a fun way for us to start a conversation about what WE thought were the best of the year, and a good way for us to prove that the Hollywood Elite really are as predictable as we think they are. Below are both my predictions (after doing some research online about the “expected” winners) and my personal favorites in each category.

Also worth noting: if you want to see a list of the generally accepted “favorites,” the New York Times has a handy page right here.

Best Picture:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Prediction: Boyhood
Personal Pick: Boyhood

I’m immediately going against-the-grain here by picking Boyhood over Birdman, which has become the odds-on favorite in recent weeks. The main reason for Birdman’s sudden momentum is that, as of now, it has won the major awards at SAG, PGA, and DGA awards. It’s incredibly rare that a film wins all three of the major guild awards but not Best Picture. However, I have a theory as to how Boyhood might.

The largest voting body in the Academy is SAG, and in the SAG awards, the membership votes ONLY based on performances. So, when everybody says that Birdman won the “major” SAG award, they’re referring to the “Best Ensemble Cast” award. I can certainly see the appeal of Birdman to screen actors, who often face the same struggle as Keaton’s character in regard to artistry versus popularity, but actors also tend to appreciate emotional storytelling. While Birdman speaks to a particular artistic impulse, Boyhood brings up emotions that nearly everybody can relate to, whether it be their own childhoods or their experience raising children.

I could certainly be wrong here, but Boyhood’s still got a good shot. It’s won plenty of awards outside of the major guilds, and tends to be a beloved film. We’ll see.

Actual Winner: Birdman. Look, I’m not going to rag on Birdman too much, because I really enjoyed that film. After Boyhood, it was probably my favorite of the year, because it captured the emotional reality of artistic pursuit. But it IS a bit of a bummer that Boyhood, an incredible achievement in filmmaking, only walked away with a Supporting Actress win. Years later, that’s going to seem like a major slight.

 

Best Director:
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Birdman”
Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”

Prediction: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Personal Pick: Richard Linklater

This may be the closest major race this year, with only a slight majority going to Inarritu. While I picked Boyhood for Best Picture, and Best Picture/Best Director are rarely split, I do feel like most people view the director as being responsible for the “style” of the movie. Of the two frontrunners for Best Picture, Birdman is definitely the one with the more obvious style, so Inarritu’s excellent work stands out. However, I feel like Linklater deserves recognition for steering and spearheading Boyhood for twelve whole years. It takes a lot of dedication and clarity-of-vision to pull that off.

Actual Winner: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. Again, I can’t complain. Inarritu brought a ton of style to his film, and everything from the music to the production design to the incredible cinematography and disguised single-take merged to create a unique, singular experience. He’s been an interesting, hard-working director for some time now, so it’s nice for him to get some recognition. I still feel like Linklater’s devotion was worth rewarding, though.

 

Best Actor:
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

Prediction: Eddie Redmayne
Personal Pick: Michael Keaton

Eddie Redmayne certainly has the odds in his favor here and, from all accounts, he put in a wonderful performance in The Theory of Everything (I still have not seen it). I chose Michael Keaton here by default, since it is the only film in the category I’ve personally seen, but Keaton may actually stand a chance. The academy loves to vote for a “come-back” story, and Keaton gives it to them. Bradley Cooper is also a possible dark horse, since American Sniper was released late and did not qualify for some of the awards that Redmayne won. My money’s still on Redmayne, though.

EDIT (2/22/2015): I’ve now seen both American Sniper and The Theory of Everything, and both have very strong central performances.

I do feel like The Theory of Everything is playing into the Academy’s biases here, with a biopic performance about a man facing a disability, but that’s not to say that Redmayne did bad work. There’s a fearlessness and physicality to his portrayal of Hawking that, if rewarded tonight, I could stand behind.

Bradley Cooper’s work in American Sniper is not as overtly Oscar-bait-y as Redmaynes, but it is also a different type of role than Cooper is likely used to. He embodies the “Texas Man” stereotype well, and a lot of the film’s subtext rides on his performance.

All that said, I’m still sticking with Michael Keaton as my personal favorite. He essentially carries the whole picture, and has a certain manic vibe that I enjoyed throughout.

Actual Winner: Eddie Redmayne. Once again, I can’t say that Redmayne didn’t earn it. The Theory of Everything didn’t impress me too much as a movie, and it was clearly produced as Oscar-bait, but Redmayne really went above-and-beyond in his portrayal.

 

Best Actress:
Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

Prediction: Julianne Moore
Personal Pick: N/A

I have not seen a single one of these movies. However, from what I’ve heard, Julianne Moore is a sure thing in this category.

Actual Winner: Julianne Moore. Everybody expected this to happen. I still don’t have an opinion on it either way.

 

Best Supporting Actor:
Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

Prediction: J.K. Simmons
Personal Pick: J.K. Simmons

As great as the performances in this category were (Ethan Hawke and Edward Norton put in two of my favorite performances of the year, without a doubt), the winner is still a sure thing. J.K. Simmons, one of the hardest-working and most criminally underrated actors in Hollywood, put in his career-best performance and buried everything else this year.

Actual Winner: J.K. Simmons. That IS my tempo.

 

Best Supporting Actress:
Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Laura Dern, “Wild”
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone, “Birdman”
Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”

Prediction: Patricia Arquette
Personal Pick: Patricia Arquette

This one is Patricia Arquette’s to lose. She put in a wonderful, emotional performance over the course of 12 years.

Actual Winner: Patricia Arquette. Boyhood’s only win. She absolutely deserved it.

 

Best Foreign Language Film:
Ida
Leviathan
Tangerines
Timbuktu
Wild Tales

Prediction: Ida
Personal Pick: N/A

I didn’t see any of these films, so I have no personal opinion. It sounds like Ida is the favorite to win, but I’ve seen a few Oscar prognosticators expecting a Wild Tales upset. Apparently Wild Tales is a bit of a crowd-pleaser, and those tend to go over well with Academy voters in short-subjects and documentaries. I’m still tossing my vote at Ida, but a Wild Tales win wouldn’t surprise me.

Actual Winner: Ida. I still haven’t seen any of these films, but I’ll definitely check out Ida.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay:
“American Sniper” – Jason Hall
“The Imitation Game” – Graham Moore
“Inherent Vice” – Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Theory of Everything” – Anthony McCarten
“Whiplash” – Damien Chazelle

Prediction: The Imitation Game
Personal Pick: Whiplash

From my research, it looks like The Imitation Game is expected to win here. Personally, I would love to see Whiplash get some recognition. It’s not a showy biopic, but it really gets to the root of the dedication that powers artistic greatness and how it negatively impacts our personal lives. It’s an excellent, well-balanced screenplay. But I’m still predicting The Imitation Game.

Actual Winner: The Imitation Game. I still haven’t seen it, so I can’t say whether or not it deserved the award.

 

Best Original Screenplay:
“Birdman” – Alejandro G. Inarritu, I Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., and Armando Bo
“Boyhood” – Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” – E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” – Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness
“Nightcrawler” – Dan Gilroy

Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Personal Pick: Boyhood

I was somewhat surprised to see how clear the consensus was that The Grand Budapest Hotel would take this award. It’s a smart, well-layered screenplay, but it never particularly resonated with me, and I felt like the strengths of that film lay more with the production design and cinematography. Boyhood’s screenplay, on the other hand, is very low-key, but is an expert example of storytelling within the margins. Linklater managed to give the impression that these characters had full, complicated lives around the moments that we’re allowed to drop in on, and managed to insert the extra details in a way that felt totally natural for the characters. It’s subtle, but remarkably difficult to pull off. I’d love to see that work recognized.

Actual Winner: Birdman. This one was a bit of a surprise, but I can get behind a Birdman win. I’m still not sure that the ending actually had any intended meaning behind it aside from “uncertainty registers as depth,” but the central conceit was very clever and it registered on an emotional level with many people with creative ambitions.

 

Best Animated Feature Film:
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Prediction: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Personal Pick: …can I write in “The Lego Movie”? Oh, fine. How to Train Your Dragon 2

As has been thoroughly discussed online at the point, it is utterly baffling that The Lego Movie, the clear frontrunner in animation this year, was not nominated for an Academy Award. Of the films nominated, I have only seen Big Hero 6 and How to Train Your Dragon 2. Of those two, I personally preferred How to Train Your Dragon 2, so I’m going with that for my pick. It also sounds like How to Train Your Dragon 2 is the likely winner this year, but it’s not impossible that a smaller film could step up and take the prize. It would honestly be nice to see a more traditionally animated film win this award.

Actual Winner: Big Hero 6. I liked the animation and some of the gags in this one, but the storytelling felt forced all throughout. The Lego Movie is clearly the best animated film of the year, but Big Hero 6 wasn’t even my pick among the films that they DID nominate.

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Personal Pick: Guardians of the Galaxy

First of all, I don’t think that the academy would give Guardians an award here when there are two more “serious” award movies in the same category. However, the makeup work in Guardians was inventive and diverse, and deserves recognition. Discounting it altogether, I would go with The Grand Budapest Hotel, which ALSO had diverse and compelling makeup work,  including some very convincing aging makeup. I just hope that they don’t give it to Foxcatcher based on a single character’s prosthetics when two much larger jobs are nominated in the same category. It sounds like it’s a toss-up between The Grand Budapest Hotel and Foxcatcher, so I’m “predicting” the one that I feel deserves it more.

Actual Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel. Again, I can’t complain. Lots of great work there.

 

Best Cinematography:
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken

Prediction: Birdman
Personal Pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel

It sounds like Birdman is the clear favorite here, so if you’re filling out a ballot, go with that. It’s certainly deserving of recognition, since a significant amount of planning and purpose are required in figuring out how to move the camera through the various locations and disguise it all as one take. However, personally, I’d vote for The Grand Budapest Hotel. Anderson and his Director of Photography, Robert D. Yeoman, had to consider several framing styles, color schemes, aspect ratios, and lens types to distinguish the different time periods and locations in his film. While Birdman may be the more technically impressive feat, Grand Budapest Hotel is the more artistically ambitious of the two.

Actual Winner: Birdman. There’s a strong argument for Birdman’s win here. Emmanuel Lubezki (who also won for Gravity last year) is on a roll.

 

Best Costume Design:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner

Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Personal Pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel

This one is The Grand Budapest Hotel’s to lose. I can’t argue with that; while other films in the category, such as Into the Woods and Maleficent, had to get inventive, The Grand Budapest Hotel had to create costumes for a nation that didn’t actually exist (the Republic of Zubrowka) while also drawing from historical styles to ground the film in some form of reality.

Actual Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel. Like with makeup and hairstyling, it’s hard to argue here.

 

Best Film Editing:
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

Prediction: Boyhood
Personal Pick: Whiplash

All signs point to Boyhood winning this award, because voters seem to think that the twelve years of footage make for a more complicated editing job. Personally, I don’t see this argument at all; while there were several years of footage, seeing as the sequences are all chronological and never cut back and forth, putting it all together does not strike me as a great feat. On the other hand, the editing is absolutely crucial to Whiplash, which derives much of its energy and feeling from its expertly cut musical sequences. It won’t win, and that’s a shame.

Actual Winner: Whiplash. This was my most pleasant surprise of the night. Whiplash deserved this award 100%, so it’s nice that enough of the Academy saw it to realize that.

 

Best Original Score:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything

Prediction: The Theory of Everything
Personal Pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Most people are predicting that The Theory of Everything will pick this one up. I haven’t seen that film, so I’m putting The Grand Budapest Hotel, which is a possible dark horse in the category, as my personal pick. I’d still put my money on The Theory of Everything, though.

Edit (2/22/2015): After seeing The Theory of Everything, I still believe that The Grand Budapest Hotel deserves this award.

Actual Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel. Yet another pleasant surprise!

 

Best Original Song:
“Lost Stars” – from “Begin Again”
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You – from “Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me”
“Everything is Awesome” – from “The Lego Movie”
“Glory” – from “Selma”
“Grateful” – from “Beyond the Lights

Prediction: Glory
Personal Pick: Everything is Awesome

Of all the Oscar Predictions I’ve seen so far, only The Hollywood Reporter has voted against Glory (choosing “I’m Not Gonna Miss You”). I think they’re being foolish. Glory is a ballad about important themes from a film that is otherwise criminally under-represented this year. It’s a sure thing. Personally, I’ll go with Everything is Awesome, a cheeky parody of populist musical tastes that manages to be a catchy earworm in its own right.

Actual Winner: Glory. After a beautiful performance at the show, which managed to bring David Oyelowo to tears, it would have been weird to see anything else win. But at least we got Will Arnett wearing Val Kilmer’s costume from Batman Forever in the “Everything is Awesome” performance.

 

Best Production Design:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Personal Pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel

If there’s one award that The Grand Budapest Hotel absolutely, 100% deserves to win, it’s this one. Anything else would be a crying shame.

Actual Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel. Yep.

 

Best Sound Mixing:
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash

Prediction: American Sniper
Personal Pick: Whiplash

First of all, to clarify for people who are confused by the sound categories: Sound Mixing is about the leveling of the audio in a film, and the balance of dialogue, music, effects, etc. From the looks of things, American Sniper is going to win this award, and has a very strong mix. However, I would personally pick Whiplash. Next to editing, the sound mix is the most important proponent in the film’s power and energy. I get the feeling that far fewer Academy voters saw Whiplash than American Sniper, though.

Edit (2/22/2015): After seeing American Sniper, I wouldn’t be at all upset to see it win this category. The sound mixing played an integral part in both the tense war sequences and the scenes back home in America, and it was superbly integrated. I’m still going with Whiplash, because the great sound mix played a major role there too and I liked that film more, but American Sniper is roughly as deserving.

Sound Mixing: Whiplash. Another category that Whiplash deserved to win, and actually won!

 

Best Sound Editing:
American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Prediction: American Sniper
Personal Pick: Interstellar

Sound editing refers to the actual sound effects created and selected for a film. Again, American Sniper is the favorite here. I have not seen it yet, so I went with Interstellar as my personal pick. The sound team had to create a lot of sounds that didn’t necessarily exist for that film, and did a magnificent job.

Edit (2/22/2015): After seeing American Sniper, I would have to say that it eclipses Interstellar for my personal pick of “Best Sound Editing.” Not by a lot, but it’s enough.

Actual Winner: American Sniper. This is the only award that American Sniper won, and probably the only award that it really deserved to win. Nevertheless, the sound editing in this film is excellent.

 

Best Visual Effects:
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Prediction: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Personal Pick: Interstellar

I’m going a bit off-books on my prediction for this one. While it looks like more people are expecting a win for Interstellar, I’m guessing that the performance capture work and “soul” of Dawn of the Planet of the Apes will get the attention of the Academy voters. My personal pick is for Interstellar, however, because of the amount of work that went into accurately depicting black holes, wormholes, and other phenomena that we have never seen with our own eyes. Nolan’s visual team consulted with Kip Thorne, a leading theoretical physicist at Caltech, to create the equations for their effects rendering, and it led to a fascinating display of (mostly) real science. I wouldn’t mind seeing Guardians of the Galaxy win, either, for the way that it managed to make the CGI members of the team feel completely integrated.

Actual Winner: Interstellar. Cool. The amount of care that went into portraying actual scientific phenomena accurately is inspiring here. It’s good to see that care recognized.

 

Best Documentary – Feature:
CitizenFour
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga

Prediction: CitizenFour
Personal Pick: N/A

While a few predictions I read went out on a limb and guessed “Finding Vivian Maier” and “Virunga,” it is “CitizenFour,” the Edward Snowden documentary, that is largely expected to win here. That’s what I’m betting on, but I have not actually seen any of the films in the category.

Actual Winner: CitizenFour. Not a surprise, but it’s still interesting to see the Academy openly applaud a speech in which a fugitive charged with treason is referred to as a “hero.” Not exactly an uncommon sentiment given the extent of the government’s spying on citizens, but kind of crazy to see in a formal, high-profile, televised event. I really need to check this documentary out.

 

Best Documentary – Short Subject:
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Our Curse
The Reaper (La Parka)
White Earth

Prediction: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Personal Pick: N/A

This seems to be a tight race between Crisis Hotline and Joanna. I haven’t seen either, so I picked one and went with Crisis Hotline. Either one is a good guess, though.

Actual Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1. I have no opinion here, despite having guessed the winner correctly.

 

Best Animated Short Film:
The Bigger Picture
The Dam Keeper
Feast
Me and My Moulton
A Single Life

Prediction: Feast
Personal Pick: Feast

Feast seems to be the leader here, but I wonder if that’s just because more of the Oscar predictors have SEEN Feast (which is attached to Big Hero 6). Either way, it’s a strong pick: a cute, silly animated short about a ravenous dog that ultimately turns into a story of the romantic ups and downs of the dog’s owner. It’s smart, sweet, and effective.

Actual Winner: Feast. The only one I’ve actually seen among the nominees. It was cute.

 

Best Live Action Short Film:
Aya
Boogaloo and Graham
Butter Lamp
Parvaneh
The Phone Call

Prediction: The Phone Call
Personal Pick: N/A

The Phone Call seems to be the one to beat in this category. I haven’t seen any of them, so I’ll have to go with that consensus.

Actual Pick: The Phone Call. Again, I have no real opinion here.

 

…and, that’s it for Oscar Predictions! I’ll update this post after the awards to see how I did, and I’ll compare my results to the New York Times page, as well.

Also, next week, look for an episode of Jay and Ross Talk Shit covering the Oscars! We made our predictions earlier this week based on no research at all, so they will differ from what I wrote here, but we’ll be doing a before-and-after show to cover exactly how wrong we were. Check it out!